Investimentos públicos e privados muito baixosA recente matéria do The Economist que elogia o Brasil, faz uma análise retrospectiva do porque o país está onde está:
Lula is right to say that his country deserves respect, just as he deserves much of the adulation he enjoys. But he has also been a lucky president, reaping the rewards of the commodity boom and operating from the solid platform for growth erected by his predecessor, Fernando Henrique Cardoso. Maintaining Brazil’s improved performance in a world suffering harder times means that Lula’s successor will have to tackle some of the problems that he has felt able to ignore. So the outcome of the election may determine the speed with which Brazil advances in the post-Lula era. Nevertheless, the country’s course seems to be set. Its take-off is all the more admirable because it has been achieved through reform and democratic consensus-building.
Mas também faz advertências...
Just as it would be a mistake to underestimate the new Brazil, so it would be to gloss over its weaknesses. Some of these are depressingly familiar. Government spending is growing faster than the economy as a whole, but both private and public sectors still invest too little, planting a question-mark over those rosy growth forecasts. Too much public money is going on the wrong things. The federal government’s payroll has increased by 13% since September 2008. Social-security and pension spending rose by 7% over the same period although the population is relatively young. Despite recent improvements, education and infrastructure still lag behind China’s or South Korea’s (as a big power cut this week reminded Brazilians). In some parts of Brazil, violent crime is still rampant.
Essas advertências coincidem com as de um relatório que o experimentado gestor de um lucrativo fundo de investimentos de um grande banco internacional distribuiu aos seus clientes:
Na visão dele, são problemas para o desenvolvimento da economia brasileira: o crescimento dos gastos do governo, o aumento da presença do Estado, a política assistencialista, o baixo nível dos investimentos públicos e privados e a alta dívida bruta.
Esses fatores caracterizam um preocupante quadro de deterioração fiscal, populismo, e perda de competitividade.
O artigo do The Economist pode ser lido aqui.
Lula is right to say that his country deserves respect, just as he deserves much of the adulation he enjoys. But he has also been a lucky president, reaping the rewards of the commodity boom and operating from the solid platform for growth erected by his predecessor, Fernando Henrique Cardoso. Maintaining Brazil’s improved performance in a world suffering harder times means that Lula’s successor will have to tackle some of the problems that he has felt able to ignore. So the outcome of the election may determine the speed with which Brazil advances in the post-Lula era. Nevertheless, the country’s course seems to be set. Its take-off is all the more admirable because it has been achieved through reform and democratic consensus-building.
Mas também faz advertências...
Just as it would be a mistake to underestimate the new Brazil, so it would be to gloss over its weaknesses. Some of these are depressingly familiar. Government spending is growing faster than the economy as a whole, but both private and public sectors still invest too little, planting a question-mark over those rosy growth forecasts. Too much public money is going on the wrong things. The federal government’s payroll has increased by 13% since September 2008. Social-security and pension spending rose by 7% over the same period although the population is relatively young. Despite recent improvements, education and infrastructure still lag behind China’s or South Korea’s (as a big power cut this week reminded Brazilians). In some parts of Brazil, violent crime is still rampant.
Essas advertências coincidem com as de um relatório que o experimentado gestor de um lucrativo fundo de investimentos de um grande banco internacional distribuiu aos seus clientes:
Na visão dele, são problemas para o desenvolvimento da economia brasileira: o crescimento dos gastos do governo, o aumento da presença do Estado, a política assistencialista, o baixo nível dos investimentos públicos e privados e a alta dívida bruta.
Esses fatores caracterizam um preocupante quadro de deterioração fiscal, populismo, e perda de competitividade.
O artigo do The Economist pode ser lido aqui.
Nenhum comentário:
Postar um comentário